Welcome to the latest edition of The Road to 2030 by Autotrader
The Road to 2030 Report tracks the progress of electric vehicle (EV) adoption as the UK moves closer to the ban on the sale of new petrol and diesel cars.
Using Autotrader data and insights, the Report answers questions that are vital to understanding the EV market and how the industry and policymakers can drive mass adoption.
The latest edition of the Report focuses on the impact of the changes to the ZEV mandate targets and how current market dynamics could see the used car market drive the growth of EV adoption, posing a risk to new EV registrations and targets.
Published 3rd July 2025
Opening remarks from Ian Plummer, Commercial Director.
The last year was full of twists and turns on the road to 2030.
The year that saw the 2035 ban on petrol and diesel sales reversed to 2030 also saw manufacturers push to meet the first year’s Zero Emissions Vehicle (ZEV) mandate by pricing competitively. In fact, 2024 proved a record year for EV sales in the UK.
Despite this positive, The Road to 2030 remains an uphill struggle. New EV sales continue to be driven by fleet customers, with private sales remaining flat through the year as the lack of support for new EVs pushes many buyers away.
There are also concerns about the current ZEV mandate framework, with the incremental targets set out many years ago now seen as not realistic given the low levels of private new EV demand. We therefore welcome the upcoming mandate review. But whilst there are bumps in the road, there are certainly causes for optimism.
We are seeing demand for used EVs continue to rise, as more affordable EV options are drawing in more and more consumers looking to make the switch. Last year saw used electric cars sell faster than any other fuel type highlighting the rich consumer appetite and opportunity for retailers.
And we are seeing new brands with innovative products entering the market which are set to shake up the established order. To some, these brands may be seen as challengers but for many in our industry, they present all-new, potentially lucrative, partnership opportunities. But crucially for consumers, they offer more choice when looking to make the switch.
Read on to explore all this and more in this edition of The Road to 2030 Report.
Scroll through the report or click the buttons below to head to a particular section.
Government announced changes to the ZEV mandate
Following the ZEV mandate consultation, in April 2025, the government announced changes to the mandate intended to provide more flexibility for car manufacturers in driving the transition towards electric cars.
This raises the question - has anything changed?
Summary of changes to the ZEV mandate
Lower penalties
Fines for non-compliance with mandate targets have been reduced by 20%.
Cars
Reduced from £15,000 to £20,000
Vans
Reduced from £18,000 to £15,000
Extended Flexibility
Hybrid and plug-in hybrid sales permitted until 2035.
Extended transfer of CO2 savings from hybrid vehicles to EV targets to 2029.
Manufacturers can delay EV sales to later years.
Manufacturer Accomodation
Introduced van to car ZEV credit transfer.
Exempted small manufactures from targets.
New EV market dynamics unchanged
Since the changes to the ZEV mandate, demand for EVs on Autotrader has remained unchanged, holding at an average 18% of total on-site enquiries, while enquiries for hybrids have grown
This is reflected in registrations: after a surge in March when buyers rushed to beat April’s new tax measures, EV volumes have grown only slightly, holding steady at 21% of new car sales, while hybrids continue to gain market share.
Some manufacturers have paused their EV push, with less aggressive pricing tactics
The latest change allowing hybrid sales to contribute towards mandate targets has reduced manufacturer pressure to push EV demand, as a result, discounts have remained subdued in the months following the plate-change in March.
However discounts on EVs remain the highest across all fuel types, with some manufacturers actually increasing their EV push since the mandate changes were announced.
Retail demand is flat
In H1 2025 retail demand for EV has continued to be sluggish, seemingly falling since the introduction of taxation measures and the changes to the mandate, therefore remaining far behind previous highs despite representing a growing proportion of cars advertised.
Choice is improving for consumers
There are now 148 new EV models to choose from and as the variety has improved, this has largely seen more affordable and smaller vehicles being introduced – a distinct difference from the range of vehicles sold in the market in the early years of EV adoption.
Prices are coming down
Influenced by lower-cost design methods, increased competition from new brands, and heavy discounting that has reduced upfront prices, EV affordability has improved.
In June 2025, the average EV price premium over ICE vehicles dropped to 22% - a 12-point decrease from a year earlier, after remaining flat for at least 18 months.
As affordability improves, EV adoption could accelerate since upfront cost - consistently a top barrier has proven to boost sales when reduced, as seen in the used EV market.
The biggest winners of consumer interest are more affordable and newer models
Consumer interest is largely being captured by the most affordable models as the first priority and the MG4 remains the most popular new EV for enquiries.
Although some of the newly launched affordable EVs feature strongly among the most considered models, with a number of vehicles included from new market arrivals.
EV owners love them and will replace them with a new one
Results from a recent survey showed that EV buyers love their cars and 4 in 5 will likely purchase another EV for their next car.
This means that once people are moved from considering an EV to buying, they’re unlikely to switch back to an ICE vehicle.
Consideration among consumers is growing, but they’re more likely to buy used
Positively, consumer consideration for EVs is growing. A recent survey found that over 2 in 5 consumers are considering an EV for their next car, a 7ppts increase from our previous survey.
The challenge is that many of these considerers are moving to used EVs as they represent such good value for money. On Autotrader, we see new EVs being cross shopped with vehicles in the second-hand market – 89% of the new EV audience also considered a 3-5-year-old EVs where heavy depreciation has driven their affordability.
This poses a further risk to the new EV market and OEMs hitting their ZEV mandate targets.
The growth in adoption is in the used EV market
With more consumers considering a second-hand EV, the pendulum is swinging from new to used. In the last two years, we’ve seen the new brands, longer battery ranges and better tech flow into the used EV market and provide consumers with the level of choice that they could previously only get in the new car market – except at a much lower price.
On Autotrader used EVs generate 15 times more enquiries than new ones, highlighting the scale and runway for growth as consumers benefit from lower prices and better choice. The gap is even larger when we look at enquiries sent on cars under £20,000.
Affordability is driven by heavy price declines in previous years
While affordability is great news for consumers looking to switch to electric, it has happened in an unsustainable way. This has been driven by the sharp price declines seen in 2023 when vehicles returned to the market without sufficient consumer demand to absorb the surge in supply.
The subsequent loss of market confidence in EVs saw vehicle prices continue to decline throughout 2024 – driving the affordability of vehicles in the used car market.
Consumer interest is concentrated in the affordable price bands
The used EV market has driven adoption for more middle-income households compared to the wealthier groups previously driving EV adoption.
And interest in the market is heavily concentrated towards more affordable price bands, with 62% of buyers looking at vehicles under £20k.
Speed of sale remains fast – albeit slower than before
In 2024, used EVs became the fastest selling fuel type as growing consumer demand accelerated the speed of sale, however in 2025, they have reverted to the slowest selling fuel type driven by the most recent surge in EV supply.
Despite this, used EVs sold on average every 34 days – significantly faster than the 49-day highs seen during the first supply surge as consumer demand continues to outpace the available supply.
Ahead of future waves of supply, more demand is needed to maintain healthy market dynamics. The big challenge for the industry and government alike is to ensure the growth of demand and that this converts to sales.
Consumers, retailers and charge point operators will benefit
Different groups of stakeholders are impacted by the ongoing dynamics in the EV market. However work still needs to be done to make sure consumer consideration continues to grow.
Consumers
A more affordable choice of EVs are now available to consumers, making them a more accessible choice.
Retailers
Will be able capitalise on growing EV demand from consumers.
Chargepoint Operators
Will see an increase in network utilisation resulting from an increase in EVs on the road.
Manufacturers
Have the opportunity to conquest buyers looking for their next EV from other brands.
Concluding remarks from Erin Baker, Editorial Director:
The electric landscape is constantly changing– with new technologies, new brands and new ways of running and owning a car, it can be a lot to keep up with, but that’s what makes it so exciting!
The data shows that many consumers are ready to make the switch when the price is right for them, and they also tell us they’re mostly ready to consider all brands on offer – even those that are less well-established. With the Zero Emission Vehicle Mandate ramping up each year it’s vital we’re all focused on removing the barriers consumers face.
As we’ve highlighted, there are steps that industry and government must take to drive adoption:
Develop targeted financial incentives for the used electric market
Be proactive and transparent about future changes in road pricing and taxes for electric cars
Support the charging industry by speeding up the roll out and removing planning issues
Only by taking these steps and listening to the consumer will we achieve the ultimate goal of mass adoption by 2030.