Welcome to the latest edition of The Road to 2030 by Autotrader

The Road to 2030 Report tracks the progress of electric vehicle (EV) adoption as the UK moves closer to the ban on the sale of new petrol and diesel cars. 

Using Autotrader data and insights, the Report answers questions that are vital to understanding the EV market and how the industry and policymakers can drive mass adoption.

The latest edition of the Report focuses on the impact of the changes to the ZEV mandate targets and how current market dynamics could see the used car market drive the growth of EV adoption, posing a risk to new EV registrations and targets.

Published 4th July 2025

Opening remarks from Ian Plummer, Commercial Director. 

In the last edition of this report, we reflected on how 2024 was a breakout year for electric vehicles (EVs) and the reinstatement of 2030 as the cut-off date for the sale of new petrol and diesel cars.

Since then, we’ve seen further developments with the Zero Emissions Vehicle (ZEV) mandate being updated after consultation with industry. These updates have alleviated pressure on manufacturers, adding flexibility and reducing fines.

But whilst the update to the mandate has been welcomed by manufacturers, it does little to help drive EV adoption among consumers and may impact the possibility of hitting 2030 targets.

This doubt is shared by consumers with 80% believing the Government will not be able to meet the 2030 goal of banning new petrol and diesel vehicle sales.

With these changes in market forces, we are seeing a more complex electric market than ever before. We know that more consumers than ever are looking to make the switch. But many are put off by the high upfront cost of new EVs and are opting to start their electric journey with a used EV. This is of course welcome news for the used market but, as you’ll read in this report, the growth in used EVs does pose a further risk to ZEV targets.

The availability of affordable new EVs is a bright spark in the new market, providing a glimmer of hope and the £1.4 billion recently committed by the Government to support the transition is promising. But it may take time for these improvements to reach and reassure the wider public.

Read on to explore all this and more in this edition of The Road to 2030 Report.  

Scroll through the report or click the buttons below to head to a particular section.

Adjustments to the ZEV mandate help ease pressure on OEMs

Following the ZEV mandate consultation, in April 2025, the government announced changes to the mandate intended to provide more flexibility for car manufacturers in driving the transition towards electric cars.

This raises the question - has anything changed?

Summary of changes to the ZEV mandate

  • Lower Penalties

    Fines for non-compliance with mandate targets have been reduced by 20%.

    Cars

    Reduced from £20,000 to £15,000

    Vans

    Reduced from £18,000 to £15,000

  • Extended Flexibility

    Hybrid and plug-in hybrid sales permitted until 2035.

    Extended transfer of CO2 savings from hybrid vehicles to EV targets to 2029.

    Manufacturers can delay EV sales to later years.

  • Manufacturer Accommodation

    Introduced van to car ZEV credit transfer.

    Exempted small manufactures from targets.

New EV market on pause following mandate and tax changes

Since the changes to the ZEV mandate, demand for EVs on Autotrader has remained unchanged, holding at an average 18% of total on-site enquiries, while enquiries for hybrids have grown.

This is reflected in registrations: after a surge in March when buyers rushed to beat April’s new tax measures, EV volumes have grown only slightly, holding steady at 22% of new car sales, while hybrids continue to gain market share.

Some manufacturers have paused their EV push, with less aggressive pricing tactics

The latest change allowing hybrid sales to contribute towards mandate targets has reduced manufacturer pressure to push EV demand, as a result, discounts have remained subdued in the months following the plate-change in March. 

However discounts on EVs remain the highest across all fuel types, with some manufacturers actually increasing their EV push since the mandate changes were announced. 

Choice is improving for consumers 

There are now 148 new EV models to choose from and as the variety has improved, this has largely seen more affordable and smaller vehicles being introduced – a distinct difference from the range of vehicles sold in the market in the early years of EV adoption.

Prices are coming down

Influenced by lower-cost design methods, increased competition from new brands, and heavy discounting that has reduced upfront prices, EV affordability has improved.

In June 2025, the average EV price premium over ICE vehicles dropped to 22% - a 12-point decrease from a year earlier, after remaining flat for at least 18 months. While the price premium has reduced significantly over the last year, movements have settled since the recent wave of affordable models have entered the market.

As affordability improves, EV adoption could accelerate since upfront cost - consistently a top barrier - has proven to boost sales when reduced, as seen in the used EV market.

The biggest winners of consumer interest are more affordable and newer models

Consumer interest is largely being captured by the most affordable models as the first priority and the MG4 remains the most popular new EV for enquiries.

Although, some of the newly launched affordable EVs feature strongly among the most considered models, with a number of vehicles included from new market arrivals.

EV owners love them and will replace them with a new one.

Results from a recent survey showed that EV buyers love their cars and 4 in 5 will likely purchase another EV for their next car.

This means that once people are moved from considering an EV to buying, they’re unlikely to switch back to an ICE vehicle.

Consideration among consumers is growing, but they’re more likely to buy used

Positively, consumer consideration for EVs is growing. A recent survey found that over 2 in 5 consumers are considering an EV for their next car, a 7ppts increase from the same survey last year.

The challenge is that many of these considerers are moving to used EVs as they represent such good value for money. On Autotrader, we see new EVs being cross shopped with vehicles in the second-hand market – 89% of the new EV audience also considered a 3-5-year-old EVs where heavy depreciation has driven their affordability.

This poses a further risk to the new EV market and OEMs hitting their ZEV mandate targets.  

The growth in adoption is in the used EV market 

With more consumers considering a second-hand EV, the pendulum is swinging from new to used. In the last two years, we’ve seen new brands, longer battery ranges and better technology flow into the used EV market and provide consumers with the level of choice that they could previously only get in the new car market – except at a much lower price.

On Autotrader used EVs generate 15 times more enquiries than new ones, highlighting the scale and runway for growth as consumers benefit from lower prices and better choice. The gap is even larger when we look at enquiries sent on cars under £20,000 where 42% of used EV enquiries are concentrated, compared to only 3% for new EVs.

This has driven adoption for more middle-income households compared to wealthier groups who have led the transition.

Used EV affordability is driven by heavy price declines in previous years

While affordability is great news for consumers looking to switch to electric, it has happened in an unsustainable way. This has been driven by the sharp price declines seen in 2023 when vehicles returned to the market without sufficient consumer demand to absorb the surge in supply.

The subsequent loss of market confidence in EVs saw vehicle prices continue to decline throughout 2024 – driving the affordability of vehicles in the used car market.

In 2025, we have seen renewed pressure on used EV prices due to the influx of supply in Q4 2024. Contrastingly, the strength of consumer demand means that prices have been more resilient.

Speed of sale remains fast – albeit slower than before

In 2024, used EVs became the fastest selling fuel type as consumer demand comfortably outpaced supply - accelerating the speed of sale. However in 2025, they have reverted to the slowest selling fuel type driven by the most recent surge in EV supply.

Despite this, used EVs sold on average every 31 days in June 2025 – significantly faster than the 49-day highs seen during the first supply surge as consumer demand continues to outpace the available supply.

More demand is needed to mantain healthy market dynamics

Ahead of future waves of supply, more demand is needed to maintain healthy market dynamics. The big challenge for the industry and government alike is to ensure the growth of demand and that this converts to sales.

Consumers, retailers and charge point operators will benefit 

With the number of EVs on UK roads expected to grow 72% over the next 3 years, more will be remarketed and sold as second-hand which will benefit consumers, retailers and chargepoint operators.

For consumers, more choice will be available across price bands, vehicle ages and body types as more of the latest vehicles flow into the used car market. Chargepoint operators will see greater utilisation of charging networks if more mainstream buyers switch to EV and retailers will become more confident as growing EV demand will prompt stability in used EV pricing.

As the supply of EVs grows over time, demand must keep pace. The 41% of drivers who are considering EVs must be converted into actual buyers to achieve this. That shift will require coordinated efforts from retailers, OEMs, charging operators, and government to address consumers’ biggest concerns

Concluding remarks from Erin Baker, Editorial Director:

The electric landscape is constantly changing– with new technologies, new brands and new ways of running and owning a car, it can be a lot to keep up with, but that’s what makes it so exciting!

The data shows that many consumers are ready to make the switch when the price is right for them, and they also tell us they’re mostly ready to consider all brands on offer – even those that are less well-established. With the Zero Emission Vehicle Mandate ramping up each year it’s vital we’re all focused on removing the barriers consumers face.

As we’ve highlighted, there are steps that industry and government must take to drive adoption:  

Develop targeted financial incentives for the used electric market  

Be proactive and transparent about future changes in road pricing and taxes for electric cars 

Support the charging industry by speeding up the roll out and removing planning issues 

Only by taking these steps and listening to the consumer will we achieve the ultimate goal of mass adoption by 2030.