Welcome to the latest edition of The Road to 2030 by Auto Trader
The Road to 2030 Report tracks the progress of electric vehicle (EV) adoption as the UK moves closer to the ban on the sale of new petrol and diesel cars.
Using Auto Trader data and insights, the Report answers questions that are vital to understanding the EV market and how the industry and policymakers can drive mass adoption.
The latest edition of the Report focuses on whether new brands coming from China can help accelerate EV adoption in the UK. It identifies both the factors driving consideration for these brands and the concerns holding back buyers, and the role retailers can play to grow awareness and provide reassurance.
Published 30th January 2025
Opening remarks from Ian Plummer, Commercial Director.
The last year was full of twists and turns on the road to 2030.
The year that saw the 2035 ban on petrol and diesel sales reversed to 2030 also saw manufacturers push to meet the first year’s Zero Emissions Vehicle (ZEV) mandate by pricing competitively. In fact, 2024 proved a record year for EV sales in the UK.
Despite this positive, The Road to 2030 remains an uphill struggle. New EV sales continue to be driven by fleet customers, with private sales remaining flat through the year as the lack of support for new EVs pushes many buyers away.
There are also concerns about the current ZEV mandate framework, with the incremental targets set out many years ago now seen as not realistic given the low levels of private new EV demand. We therefore welcome the upcoming mandate review. But whilst there are bumps in the road, there are certainly causes for optimism.
We are seeing demand for used EVs continue to rise, as more affordable EV options are drawing in more and more consumers looking to make the switch. Last year saw used electric cars sell faster than any other fuel type highlighting the rich consumer appetite and opportunity for retailers.
And we are seeing new brands with innovative products entering the market which are set to shake up the established order. To some, these brands may be seen as challengers but for many in our industry, they present all-new, potentially lucrative, partnership opportunities. But crucially for consumers, they offer more choice when looking to make the switch.
Read on to explore all this and more in this edition of The Road to 2030 Report.
Scroll through the report or click the buttons below to head to a particular section.
A record year for new EV sales
2024 marked another breakthrough year for the new EV market with nearly 382,000 new EVs registered, surpassing the 2023 figure by 21%. EVs accounted for 20% of new car registrations with sales reaching 25% in the final quarter of the year. The continued growth in EV registrations resulted in an estimated 1.3 million EVs on UK roads by year-end, underscoring their heightened visibility, growing recognition, and the effectiveness of manufacturer and retailer incentives.
The largest EV market in Europe
The UK is now the third-largest EV market in the world and has overtaken Germany and France to become the biggest in Europe. China continues to lead by a wide margin, supported by its advanced battery production capability, affordable vehicle prices, and government policies.
Sales fall short of the target ahead of the next big jump
Despite the positive momentum, weaker demand resulted in total sales falling short of the Government’s 22% target as sellers struggled to accelerate adoption at the required rate. Manufacturers are expected to avoid fines because of flexibilities in the rules including the option to borrow credits from their own quotas in future years or to buy credits from other manufacturers. With the sales target raised to 28% this year and the flexibilities diminished, addressing consumer concerns around price, charging infrastructure and batteries will be crucial to ensure a smooth and equitable transition.
Fleets drive the market as retail demand lags
Although the tax incentives on new EVs successfully encouraged nearly a quarter of fleet buyers to opt for an EV in 2024, limited support for the retail market resulted in only 10% of private buyers making the switch.
On Auto Trader, private buyer demand for new EVs grew 31% in 2024, driven by a combination of manufacturer and retailer incentives, but demand was still behind previous highs.
For an optimal viewing experience of the following chart, please use slide show mode.
MG4 the most in-demand model, again
For the second year in a row, the MG4 was the most popular new EV on Auto Trader, accounting for 9.1% of all enquiries sent to retailers. Its success, despite rising competition, is attributed to robust stock availability, effective marketing, and a competitive price point.
The significant rise in consumer incentives is also evident amongst the top ten, with eight models offering discounts greater than 10% off the recommended retail price. This contrasts sharply with 2023, when none of the top-performing models had such high discounts.
For an optimal viewing experience of the following chart, please use slide show mode.
Flurry of new affordable models should accelerate uptake
Sales to private buyers may be boosted by the influx of affordable models entering the market as manufacturers introduce lower cost design methods and aim to solve one of the biggest consumer barriers to entry.
At start of 2024, there were only nine models with a recommended retail price below £30,000. At the start of 2025, the figure has risen to 29.
Although many of these affordable models compromise on battery range, they should be popular with consumers as the used EV market has shown that when affordability is addressed, demand for EVs is very strong.
Price premium persists, but affordable models are bridging the gap.
EVs still maintain a price premium, but the increase in affordable models that are priced at parity with internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles means the upfront price gap for consumers is closing.
At the start of 2024, the average recommended retail price of a new EV was 35% higher than the equivalent ICE model. At the start of 2025, the difference has fallen to 24%. The decline can be attributed to new models like the Renault 5, Dacia Spring, and Leapmotor T03, which are being priced at a similar level to their ICE equivalents.
Battery prices falling to record lows
According to Bloomberg NEF, lithium-ion battery pack prices dropped 20% in 2024 to a record low of $115 per kilowatt-hour, marking the biggest year-on-year decline since 2017. This is largely due to cell manufacturing overcapacity and slower global sales growth, which means that prices for EVs could reach parity with ICE vehicles as soon as 2026.
More aggressive pricing tactics expected in 2025
Despite the drop in battery prices, the initial price differential between EVs and ICE vehicles will continue to be a barrier for consumers in 2025, although the 28% government sales target is likely to prompt steeper discounts from sellers to bridge the gap and accelerate uptake.
In January, the average discount on a new EV was 12.1% off the recommended retail price, up 7.3ppts in the last two years, and for some brands, the average discount was as high as 28%.
Residual values still under pressure
The comparatively high upfront cost of new EVs has led to steep declines in prices on the used market, with used EV prices down 40% over the last two years as supply and demand dynamics force retailers to lower prices.
For example, the average price of a new Citroen e-C3 is £4,000 higher than a petrol Citroen C3, but in the used car market, the electric model is forecasted to be £1,000 cheaper after the first year.
Whilst prices in the second-hand market have now stabilised, aggressive pricing strategies by manufacturers will do little to improve residual values.
Eliminating the upfront price barrier will reduce depreciation
While EVs have depreciated more than ICE vehicles in recent years, data shows that the steepest depreciation is within the first year, after which EVs depreciate at a comparable rate to their ICE equivalents.
Addressing the higher upfront cost of new EVs is therefore essential. Doing so would support a healthier residual value curve, lower monthly payments, and reduce the need for discounting on the used market.
Lower entry prices continue to drive the growth of the used EV market
Private buyers wanting to transition to electric are increasingly relying on the used market, drawn by lower resale values, competitive pricing relative to the ICE market and growing consumer choice. Since mid-2023, the used EV market has continued to grow with consumer demand outpacing supply on retailer forecourts. The industry has adapted well to the de-fleeting of EVs, resolving the difficulties first seen in 2022 when an influx of supply triggered a sharp drop in values and knocked retailer confidence.
3–5-year-old used EVs were the fastest selling segment in 2024
The used EV market's popularity amongst private buyers is evident in how quickly they’re selling. In 2024, EVs were the fastest-selling fuel type on retailer forecourts, and 3–5-year-old EVs were the fastest selling vehicle in the market.
The fastest-selling used EV was a 3–5-year-old Ford Mustang Mach-E, which sold every 19 days on average, eleven days faster than the average used car.
Greater retailer confidence is reducing price volatility
Faster turn times have encouraged more retailers to stock used EVs, as sellers recognise the opportunity to meet rising consumer demand by investing in charging infrastructure and training their sales teams.
Although faster turn times and growing retailer engagement have not translated into higher prices, due to the upfront price barrier in the brand-new market which has kept resale values suppressed, they are reducing the price volatility previously seen in the used EV segment.
Increasing sales of used EVs could dampen demand for new
Stronger demand for used EVs has potentially created challenges for manufacturers and retailers selling brand-new EVs, making it harder to meet the stricter ZEV mandate targets as price-conscious buyers opt for used options.
On Auto Trader, 9 in 10 new EV considerers also look at a used EV, and there were an estimated175,000 used EVs transacted in 2024, 47% more than the year prior. As manufacturers continue to develop more affordable EVs, this issue will diminish, but it remains a short-term challenge for sellers as they compete for buyers that are not afraid to cross-shop.
New EV sales are forecasted to grow in 2025, but targets likely to be missed
While registrations of new EVs are expected to grow 31% in 2025, outpacing all other fuel types and nearing the half-a-million mark, sales are expected to fall short of the Government’s target for the second year in a row, despite manufacturers and retailers providing substantial incentives to encourage purchases.
A smooth and equitable transition needed to drive adoption
Amid slowing sales growth and ambitious Government targets, a new consultation on the ZEV mandate aims to restore confidence on how the 2030 ban can be achieved, with outcomes expected later in the year.
Buyers and sellers need confidence, and a smooth and equitable transition is vital to this. This involves more affordable choice for consumers, a reliable and accessible public charging network, and confidence in the battery health at the point of purchase.
One of the key debates, though, is whether new Chinese EV manufacturers can accelerate EV adoption and help the UK hit the ZEV mandate targets.
Will new Chinese brands accelerate progress on the Road to 2030?
A wave of new brands from China coming to the UK
Last year, we covered the wave of new Chinese brands coming to the UK and establishing operations to build awareness amongst UK consumers. Back then, there were only two brands – BYD and GWM – whereas today, there are six with more set to enter this year.
The reasons they are coming to the UK are well-documented. Vehicle production far exceeds domestic demand in China, accelerating the need for exports to EV-friendly countries. The UK’s position as the third largest EV market and being one of the few countries that do not have tariffs on Chinese EV imports make it a prime market.
While these brands only sold 14,000 cars in the UK last year, the big question is whether they can help the UK overcome some of the barriers on The Road to 2030 and accelerate EV uptake.
Not the first-time brands from other countries have gained access
Historically, we have seen major shifts in the brands accepted by UK car buyers:
Select the badges to navigate through the timeline.
“OMODA & JAECOO launched our first model, the OMODA 5 in the UK in August 2024. As a new entrant into the market, it was crucial to establish both a brand presence and a commercial footprint in the UK prior to our first vehicles going on sale. At the time of launch, we had a nationwide dealer network of more than 65 retailers, and we partnered with Thatcham Research to guarantee the insurability and theft resistance of our vehicles, and the RAC to provide free roadside assistance to our customers for the life of a 7-year, 100,000 mile warranty.
While OMODA & JAECOO offers a leading EV solution, we also know that pure EV may not be right for everyone, right now. As a result, alongside our EV, we offer a revolutionary Super Hybrid System that gives a range of more than 700 miles to a tank / charge, as well as a super-efficient ICE powertrain for those that aren’t ready to make the change right now. We are fully supportive of the road to 2030 and are delighted to see drivers buying their first-ever New Energy Vehicles through us.”
Victor Zhang , Country Director
OMODA & JAECOO UK Ltd
The shift to EVs is accelerating the decline in brand loyalty
Some brands have already seen their market shares decline as brand loyalty has become less prevalent among consumers. In 2024, over two-thirds of new car buyers purchased their car from a different brand [1].
This declining brand loyalty is more emphasised in the EV market where over two in five new EV buyers purchased their car from a different brand to that which they previously owned.
This is being driven by the weakening brand recognition that has resulted from familiar brands launching electric model ranges with model names that are unfamiliar to consumers.
As a result of this, as well the growth of the EV market through new vehicle launches, of which there were 45 in 2024, the most considered EV models are constantly changing as it is proving difficult for brands and their models to sustain consumer interest.
This weakening brand loyalty will provide the conditions for these new brands to succeed if they can meet consumer expectations.
[1] Auto Trader New Car Awards 2024 survey n.200,000
“Leapmotor is one of the leading Chinese companies in the technology field and boasts the highest growth in the New Energy Vehicle sector. Leapmotor has a strategic partnership with Stellantis for the manufacturing and sale of cars globally outside of China.
Stellantis draws on nearly 130 years of history, the know-how of 14 brands, employees from 170 countries, commercial operations in more than 130 markets, production sites in over 30 countries, and a comprehensive global sales and post-sales network.
Leapmotor launches in the UK with two fully-electric vehicles, the T03, a supermini, and the C10, a D-SUV segment car. From here, one new vehicle will be introduced each year over the next three years.
The T03 is the smart choice for the city: a compact electric segment-A vehicle with up to 165 miles of range WLTP combined and the interior space of a segment-B vehicle. Priced at just £15,995, it is committed to be the UK’s best value electric car on sale.
Designed for today’s family, the C10 is an electric D-SUV with premium features, the best driving experience in the category with up to 261 miles of range WLTP combined and top-level safety standards priced at just £36,500.
As of January 2025, Leapmotor has 44 sales points through the Stellantis retailer network across the UK.”
Damien Dally, Brand Director
Leapmotor International UK
Perceptions are mixed, and yet to be formed by consumers
When consumers were asked about the words they associate with car brands from China, innovation and advanced technology were common, but the scores were low compared with car brands in other countries, and “poor quality” even ranked third.
Top three words associated with cars from China
Advanced technology 23%
Innovative 20%
Poor quality 17%
In contrast, German car brands are strongly associated with trust and reliability, reflecting their long-standing reputation for quality, whilst French car brands show weaker associations.
Top three words associated with cars from Germany and France
Reliable 55%
Safe 43%
Advanced technology 40%
Stylish 29%
Reliable 28%
Safe 23%
This opens an opportunity for Chinese brands to carve out a space in the transition to electric, focussing on technology and innovation, where no clear leader currently exists. Understanding which buyer types these factors resonate with could help them establish a stronger market presence and help to accelerate EV adoption.
“XPENG is one the fastest-growing new energy brands in China and is growing its global presence, opening operations in markets across Europe.
At its heart, XPENG is a technology company that builds cars, and as we move forward into a new EV era, hardware and software have become the most valuable and important factors when designing and manufacturing vehicles.
Whilst charging infrastructure continues to improve across the UK, attention is now moving towards charging speed, this is where XPENG is class leading. Using its 800v platform, the brand operates charging speeds that can only be bettered by vehicles nearly double the price.
Another key difference for XPENG will be the usage and frequency of OTA updates, which will continually be updating and improving the car based on user feedback.
By 2027, XPENG is looking towards a five-model line-up in the UK market. With continual innovation, these vehicles will all be highly advanced, with premium usable technology, keeping XPENG ahead of the field.
Whilst it is almost impossible to future-proof a product, XPENG believes with its continual innovation and OTA updates, that it is the brand that gets the closest to this objective. In uncertain times this is a big advantage.”
William Brown, Managing Director
Xpeng UK
2 in 5 buyers are open to buying from a new Chinese brand, with a higher uptake for younger vs. older
Around 40% of car buyers are already open to purchasing from a Chinese car brand, reflecting their growing recognition for advanced technology and innovation.
However, our research revealed consideration is mixed across demographic groups, with 17-34 year-olds and non-white consumers being the most open to these brands, while 55+ year-olds and white consumers are much less likely to consider a Chinese car brand.
Innovative technology and competitive pricing attract 17-34-year-olds, but older drivers have security fears
The advanced technology available at a lower price point in many Chinese brand’s vehicles is the driving factor in attracting younger buyers to consider a new entrant brand.
However, older consumers have a generally poor perception of Chinese products, with quality and data security/privacy key concerns, which is impacting their consideration of Chinese new entrant brands.
Younger, diverse consumers could be the early majority
Currently, older and wealthier buyers are the driving force behind private EV sales, with this demographic being able to meet the higher upfront costs of EVs, currently a major barrier for the majority of buyers.
Lower-priced Chinese entrants could serve to draw more buyers into EVs, however, their concerns around quality and data could prove a barrier.
Younger more diverse demographics however, are much more open-minded towards Chinese brands and are more influenced by price. This segment could therefore be the key to unlocking the early majority of EV buyers.
The success of engaging this demographic depends on whether the entry prices of new Chinese cars will be lower than the currently available options to reach true affordability.
Partnering with retailers the key to generating awareness and reassurance
Whilst marketing efforts, such as BYD’s sponsorship of the Euros, have helped brands gain some awareness among the UK population, there remains work to be done to secure widespread awareness and reassure consumers unfamiliar with these brands.
Retailers hold the key to achieving this with established, familiar retailers offering new entrants the local market expertise they currently lack including the knowledge they need to get their vehicles in front of buyers and drive awareness.
It is through successful partnerships with retailers that brands will be able to effectively reassure consumers about the quality and safety of their products, and offer pre and post-sale support.
Greater competition can benefit consumers
With 20 additional brands entering the UK market since 2019, consumers now enjoy more choice than ever before, most of which are being directed towards the growing EV market.
In response, Western brands are cutting costs, introducing models that compete with ICE equivalents on price, and partnering with Chinese companies for software and tech solutions.
The big question is, which of the new brands will win in this next transition?
Concluding remarks from Erin Baker, Editorial Director:
The electric landscape is constantly changing– with new technologies, new brands and new ways of running and owning a car, it can be a lot to keep up with, but that’s what makes it so exciting!
The data shows that many consumers are ready to make the switch when the price is right for them, and they also tell us they’re mostly ready to consider all brands on offer – even those that are less well-established. With the Zero Emission Vehicle Mandate ramping up each year it’s vital we’re all focused on removing the barriers consumers face.
As we’ve highlighted, there are steps that industry and government must take to drive adoption:
Develop targeted financial incentives for the used electric market
Be proactive and transparent about future changes in road pricing and taxes for electric cars
Support the charging industry by speeding up the roll out and removing planning issues
Only by taking these steps and listening to the consumer will we achieve the ultimate goal of mass adoption by 2030.